September 11, 2015

September 24: A Decisive or a Fateful Moment for Bolivia?

MABB ©

Thursday, September 24, 2015 at 15 hours (The Hague time) can turn into a fateful moment or remain a first decisive moment for Bolivia. On that day and that hour, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) will "deliver its Judgment on the preliminary objection to the jurisdiction of the Court raised by the Republic of Chile in the case concerning the Obligation to Negotiate Access to the Pacific Ocean (Bolivia v. Chile)" [PDF file].

It could be a fateful moment because the finding could severely undermine the efforts Bolivia has been making to, from their perspective, rectify a historic wrong. For it is sure that if the decision is against Bolivian interests, the country will continue to make efforts to bring Chile to a negotiation table. Only, that, if such is the case, those negotiations will not take place on Bolivian terms but rather on Chile's terms. In order for those negotiations to take place on Bolivian terms, a favorable judgement by the ICJ is imperative.

However, it could also be a first decisive moment, if the judgement is favorable to the Bolivian cause. That being the case, it is pretty much for sure Bolivia will continue the process. The difference would be that the country would have gained international recognition and, yes, some significant support for its cause. Of course, that does not mean Chile will capitulate. On the contrary, the issue is more than likely to continue in other instances.

So let's wait until the judgement is delivered and then we can keep speculating how will this process go on.

No comments: