December 06, 2009

Preliminary Results: Exit Polls Give Morales Another Historic Win

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Numbers from UNITEL after 66 per cent counted.

Morales 62, Manfred 26 and Samuel 7.

According to reports from Erbol (exit polls), Evo Morales and MAS have won the general elections 2009 with 63 per cent of the vote. The closer runner up is Plan Progreso para Bolivia (PPB) from Manfred Reyes got 24 per cent and in third place is Samuel Doria from Unidad Nacional (UN) with a 7.7 per cent of the vote.

Results at the departmental level, which are important for the distribution of legislative seats, are: in La Paz MAS got 81.1%, in Chuquisaca 43.3%, in Cochabamba 65.9%, in Santa Cruz 43.5%, Potosí 69.4%, in Oruro 74.3%, Beni 36% and Pando 47%.

More detailed results: Erbol

MAS is tending to gain 25 seats in the Senate. That means that MAS would have 2/3 majority and with that TOTAL control of the legislative. Including the power to change the new constitution. Changes like making it possible for Morales to run for president for additional terms!

Some analysts counter that not all is said, only when the municipal and departmental elections are carried out, the political future of Bolivia will be finished. In my opinion, Morales does not need to wait (and I would argue he will not do) until these elections are over. My counter argument would be that the constitution can be changed as we have seen recently.