September 04, 2009

Bolivian Urbanites Will Vote for Morales?

MABB © ®

Another poll attempting to measure the level of support for Morales (Angus Reid). Strong support for Morales!

Polling Data

Which candidate would you vote for in the presidential election?

Evo Morales

57.7%

Samuel Doria Medina

9.7%

Manfred Reyes Villa

8.6%

Jorge Quiroga

7.2%

Víctor Hugo Cárdenas

4.5%

René Joaquino

3.5%

Germán Antelo

1.5%

Jimena Costa

1.2%

Source: Encuestas & Estudios Gallup International
Methodology: Interviews with 3,860 Bolivian adults, conducted from Aug. 5 to Aug. 22, 2009. Margin of error is 2.27 per cent.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hmmmm. I wonder did Gallup survey anyone outside of Western Bolivia - did they even include Eastern Bolivia? Local Bolivian polls show Evo at something nearer to 40%

Anonymous said...

Jimena Costas, Victor Hugo Cárdenas and Germán Antelo have all dropped out of the race, all stating they don't want to divide the opposition any more than it already is. Germán gave his support to Manfred. Manfred invited Cárdenas to go for the number one senate spot (which he's declined) and Jimena just wants to be a political analyst again for now.

Manfred's got a busy weekend ahead. He needs to complete his lists he'll present to the electoral court by Monday. If he fills them with all the traditional names, his sudden popularity will fizzle out. If he's smart he'll add a little more shock factor and put up some really surprising names.

The ex prefect of La Paz said in an interview last night that when Evo heard Manfred had named Leopoldo as his running mate he got so angry he hit a table so hard with his fists that he broke it.

What that tells me is that Evo's probably not feeling as secure as the Gallup Poll would make him out to be.

mcentellas said...

It'll be interesting now that Gallup is in the game w/ at least two polls (or is still their first?). The local Apoyo polls have consistently given Evo around 40-45%, w/ his primary opponents at 7-12%. It'll be interesting to see if that discrepancy continues. If so, we may end up w/ a good calibration measure, depending on if the differences between the two polling organizations are consistent. We'll also get a better of sense not only of which polling organization is more accurate, but perhaps also some indication of why (and how to move towards correcting for wide differences between polls & election results).

mabb said...

Personally, I don't think we'll ever get "good" polling numbers until these companies start really polling a representative pool of Bolivians.

So far, we can only accept that these polls represent a "conscientiously" well designed statistical sample for the urban areas.

But, I also agree that the more companies doing this the better the numbers will get.

Anonymous said...

Manfred should give Evo a run for his money. People do not want to be a puppet state of Chavez, lets hope Evo does not start more riots get people killed and blame the opposition as he always does in the past....! PPB good luck!!! freedom will rain over Bolivia and for all Bolivians.....