August 05, 2009

Elections Poll

MABB © ®

I came accross this site where a group of Bolivian university students (from UMSA, La Paz, San Simon, Cochabamba, and Gabriel Rene Moreno, Santa Cruz) is posting a survey on political popularity and the chances Morales and company have in the coming December elections.

The students are doing a remarcable job at not just surveying but also analyzing the results.

Below you can see some slides as results, but I suggest to pay them a visit to see the whole presentation.

According to the survey, Morales a 44% approval rate and a 35% disapproval rate. There is not a bit of change in approval compared to the survey published by Angus Reid GM. What is interesting to me in these results are the percentage of people not decided yet (55%) versus the already decided (38%). If I remember correctly, for the last elections, there were many more people decided who to vote for at this stage of the game.

These other two images I see as a preliminary list of candidates. Of course some names have already changed. For example, the name of the new possible opposition candidate (Jimena Costa) is not included and it doesn't take into account that Roman Loayza has just lost its party and therefore its support (Muspa).


mcentellas said...

Thanks for posting this! I've been too busy (w/ moving, etc) to post on the polling data. But it does look like Evo's starting to slip relative to 2005. I still think he'll win. But to maintain momentum, he has to beat his 2005 numbers. That's not looking too likely at the moment. Curious.

mabb said...

I think one reason is his political capital is eroding away. He is not the new comer any more and his status as new to politics does not hold any more.

I am not sure, I am not that surprised. Somehow it makes sense.