July 10, 2009

Popularity Polls from Angus Reid

MABB © ®

This is the new poll conducted by Bolivian pollster firm, Apoyo, Opinion y Mercado, for many, among them Angus Reid Global Monitor. BTW, ARGM are a good source to track polls in Bolivia, I think, for the last few years.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the presidential election?

Jun. 2009

Apr. 2009

Evo Morales

44%

41%

Víctor Hugo Cárdenas

8%

7%

Samuel Doria Medina

7%

n.a.

Rubén Costas

6%

5%

Jorge Quiroga

5%

6%

Manfred Reyes Villa

5%

n.a.

Carlos Mesa

n.a.

7%

Other / Undecided

25%

34%

Source: Ipsos, Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado / ATB
Methodology: Interviews with 2,177 Bolivian adults in La Paz, El Alto, Cochabamba and Santa Cruz, conducted from Jun. 5 to Jun. 12, 2009. Margin of error is 2.1 per cent.

Though the numbers above do not say anything, in my opinion, is good to keep them as public record.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Oh, so sad it seems Evo will win again...
It doesn't say anything? not even in SC the opposition won...

mcentellas said...

Today's papers suggested that Doria Medina & Cardenas were forging an alliance. Manfred already has alliances w/ Alejo Veliz, Marcial Fabricano, and Adriana Gil. Costas has stated he won't run for president.

I'm amazed at the large undecided vote. I think Evo's numbers are "soft" (his support is probably a bit higher, since most polls over-sample urban areas). But it will be interesting to see if his numbers continue to decline.

As an aside, K8 & I were surprised to see anti-Evo/MAS graffiti on the road from La Paz to the El Alto airport. And today the El Alto FEJUVE voted to demand that the government post its YPFB contracts in public. I'm starting to suspect that Evo's support in El Alto is declining?

mabb said...

I think you are right, Evo's numbers are soft, and since rural vote does not always equal support for Evo, as we've seen in our paper, I think his support will dwindle some.

I think it will be very important for Evo to watch out what he does and says, from now to December. It might cost him the election.

Although, I expect him to crash against the empire once again. Nothing better than a big bad wolf to unite the people behind him.

robert said...
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