December 23, 2007

Is The Constitution Legal or Illegal?

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According to Angus Reid Global Monitoring service, "Many people in Bolivia reject the proposed body of law drafted by their Constituent Assembly, according to a poll by Equipos Mori. 48 per cent of respondents think the new Constitution—which has not yet entered into force—is illegal."

Here are the numbers:

Polling Data

Do you think the National Constitution approved by the Constituent Assembly is legal or illegal?

Legal

35%

Illegal

48%

Not sure

17%

Source: Equipos MORI
Methodology: Interviews with 1,100 adult Bolivians, conducted from Dec. 1 to Dec. 6, 2007. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.


Coming from Mori, I tend do take the numbers for what they are. I mean, what Mori does is poll people in the three largest cities in Bolivia, La Paz, Santa Cruz and Cochabamba. I argue that these results can be a bit skewed, because there is a significant difference between how the people in these cities think and how people in other smaller cities and smaller towns think. In other words, there is a significant regional difference that is not being accounted for. It is not just enough to ask crucenos, people from the Chaco region, Vallegrandinos, and others might not think the same. However, all differences aside, the numbers are better than nothing, right?


PS. I just wanted to wish everyone a very merry Christmas and a successful and healthy 2008. I will be without internet connection for the next week or so. So, until next year! And thank you for visiting MABB!

5 comments:

mcentellas said...

Don't forget that Mori (like Apoyo) also polls El Alto residents. Yes, the poll heavily skews towards urban residents. But the inclusion of El Alto makes up for some of the regional bias. I'd also point out that the numbers themselves are less important than the changes over time. I'd rather see the new poll on support for the CA (which was steadily falling), but yes, the numbers are better than nothing.

Norman said...

My questions are: if the new constitution is believed to be illegal, who is filing legal challenges against it? In what court are they filing them? Is the court capable of ruling on the challenges? Is the court in Evo's pocket? If the court rules the new constitution illegal, what should the government's next step be? What will the government's next step be? Lot's of questions and I'm afraid I'm not bringing any answers to the table.

miguel (mabb) said...

To get anywhere close to a true random sample (which is what these kind of polling calls for), they have to also include people in other regions, urban as well as non-urban areas, and ethnic groups. I am not sure that including El Alto brings some statistical significance. But, then again, they are the professionals, and not me. They should know how to produce a significant number within an acceptable percentile of confidence and error variation.

I'd say, the numbers are illustrative.

Filing suits against the new constitution will be a tricky business. First, the courts are not credible and ordinary justice is not held on high esteem. The justices in the Supreme Court or the Constitutional Court have been forced to resign. The Constitutional Court, at present time, is without a quorum. It cannot hear cases.

Are the courts in Evo's pockets? It looks like that's the plan.

I am guessing the government will try to appoint new justices in the new year. If the government does that, it will be one step closer to consolidating its power. The implications for the new constitutions are fundamental.

GM Roper said...

Miguel, this is an interesting post and I've forwarded the URL to Fausta of Faustas Blog. She runs a Carnival on every monday about things going on in South and Central America and the Spanish Speaking world. Good reads there (and here of course.

Have a wonderful New Year my friend.

miguel (mabb) said...

Thank you very much. A wonderful year to you too!