December 19, 2005

Bolivian Elections: Preliminary (Almost Definitive) Results

MABB © ®

In the aftermath of the elections, it looks like Bolivia will have its first indigenous president in the person of Evo Morales Aima. The preliminary reports from the major media oultlets are reporting a MAS win with between 50 to 51% of the vote. If that were the case, that would be a historical and definitive win for Morales and MAS.

The media is also reporting that Jorge Quiroga (Podemos) and Doria Medina (UN) have already conceded to the winner. One news agency quotes Quiroga saying that he congratulated Morales and Garcia Linera for their electoral result. Even more definite was Doria Medina who said, "there was a clear winner in these elections, it wouldn't make any sense to to recognize it. We believe Morales will be the next president by mandate."

Morales has already spoken like a president and said, "today starts a new chapter in the history of Bolivia." He also critiziced the electoral court for the apparent massive invalidation of voters. Morales has also highlighted that with the absolute majority he will have a clear mandate and a necessary majority to govern. However, Podemos and UN have gotten enough parliamentarians to make a modes opposition. Also, it looks like Podemos will be capitalizing on the prefectures. If autonomy is followed trhough, that'll rest power and influence to the new government.

But, one more twist. Up until yesterday, Samuel Doria Medina has said he will not negotiate nor form an alliance with any party in parliament. That doesn't speak very well for the future of governability. I think, that'll be the next trick for the coming years.

But first, let's wait for the official results and the swearing in of the new president.


Aleksander Boyd said...

The CNE page has got some preliminary results, but none point to a 50%+ victory for Morales. Are you basing yourself in polls/hot audits?

Miguel (MABB) said...

I am pretty much looking at the surveys and reports from the general press. In Bolivia there is a very useful network of radios (sat) which are just about everywhere in the country. If you'd look at this network, you'd be pretty impressed.

These people (unitel network and another network called usted elige) have been reporting from the voting centers. So, there is a degree of confidence, eventhough is "the media" saying so. So these people have been reporting Morales' win by 50,9%.

Of course, nothing is set until the fat lady sings, and I am waiting for the official results to write a final post.