November 15, 2005

Latest Poll

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IPSOS Captura has published its latest poll numbers last Monday. In them, it reports that Evo Morales leads the polls with 30.7 percent support and Jorge Quiroga closely follows with 28.7 percent. Businessman Samuel Doria Medina lags with 13.9 percent. These results show a seemingly neck-to-neck race between Evo Morales and Jorge Quiroga.

However, according to La Razon, the real winner is Jorge Quiroga. The IPSOS report shows that Quiroga has the lead in six of the nine deprtments, as follows: Quiroga leads in Beni with 37.5 percent vs. 9.4 percent for Morales; in Chuquisaca (Sucre) Quiroga scores 37.5 pecent, that would be 10.8 percentage points more than Morales; in Pando, Quiroga has 60.7 percent of the vote, while Morales has 13.4 percent; in Potosi, Quiroga again scores 36.3 percent, which represents 11.3 points more than Morales; in Santa Cruz, Quiroga has a lead where he has 33.8 percent, leading MAS with 20 percentage points and UN by 7.3; in Pando, Quiroga has a commanding lead of 51.6 percent, which represent 37.5 percentage points over Morales.

Morales, in turn, leads Quiroga in La Paz by 29.2 percentage points; in Cochabamba with 33 percent and Oruro with 36.5 percent.

All this means that Evo Morales has a lead in the national polls, but Jorge Quiroga has the real chances of becoming the next president of Bolivia. According to the La Razon article, Quiroga's leads in the particular departments will give him a majority in the upper chamber, the Senate. The Senate has 27 members, three per department. If Quiroga carries six of those, then he ends up with 18 Senators. That would represent a majority in the 27 member chamber. The calculations are not that easy in the lower chamber due to the proportional representation rules.

Sources: AP, La Razon, El Deber, Los Tiempos.

Addition1: See, this is what's good about the blogsphere. One can get a discussion going, even if it is not on the same place. Here is another perspective by boz on the polls released by IPSOS. It is a must read!

Addition2: Ciao! has thrown his insighful oppinion on the topic. Read it here.

4 comments:

Alvaro Ruiz-Navajas said...

Great post! Very informative. What do you think of Evo not wanting to debate with the other presidential candidates? Do you think it has something to do with these results?

Miguel said...

I could say, Evo knows he is not doing the way he would like to be doing. This very close race is not good for his plans. That's why I would say he would be reluctant to debate with Tuto.

Now, these particular numbers, I don't think had anything to do with his decision. The numbers came out on Monday and he had already discarded the debate last week.

But, his refusal to debate, and to respect the first majority or to respect the winner is suspect to me.

mcentellas said...

Evo desperately doesn't want to debate Tuto. While Garcia Linera is an articulate "public intellectual" (whatever one thinks of his politics), Evo is not. He's not stupid, he's just not clever or sophisticated. I'm sure he knows that in a face-to-face debate on issues, ideas, and policies Tuto would destroy Evo. After all, Evo is used to road blockades and confrontational, sloganeering discourse. Tuto is a US university educated man, who worked for international corporations - you better believe HE knows how to debate.

It's not about intelligence, it's about rhetorical sophistry. And on TV, Evo would look like just another upity cholo (he would not be like Victor Hugo Cardenas) and Tuto like a reasoned statesman.

I've often thought Evo was about to peak, and Tuto was waiting to then go after him. Evo has never really played politics at this level, he really hasn't. He "accidentally" did well in the 2002 elections. But he's never run a competitive political race at this level.

For example: Evo has been defending Chavez & visiting Argentina (w/ Chavez). And Tuto is just now preparing the sucker punch: "How can Evo be a nationalist, concerned w/ Bolivian realities, if he spends so much time making friends w/ international leaders like Chavez & Castro? Why is he more concered w/ how the Argentine public sees him, than w/ facing a debate on issues?" Evo is open to these kind of slick rhetorical attacks. And I just don't think he'd have a response. Imagine if such an exchange happened in a live debate?!

Anonymous said...

When the universe was young and life was new an intelligent species evolved and developed technologically. They went on to invent Artificial Intelligence, the computer that can listen, talk to and document each and every person's thoughts simultaneously. Because of it's infinite RAM and unbounded scope it gave the leaders of the ruling species absolute power over the universe. And it can keep its inventors alive forever. They look young and healthy and they are over 8 billion years old. They have achieved immortality.

Artificial Intelligence can speak, think and act to and through people telepathically, effectively forming your personality and any dysfunctions you may experience (there is NO FREEWILL for the oblivious/undeceived disfavored). It can change how (and if) you grow and age. It can create birth defects, affect cellular development (cancer) and cause symptoms or pain. It can affect people and animal's behavior and alter blooming/fruiting cycles of plants and trees. It (or other highly technological systems within their power) can alter the weather and transport objects, even large objects like planets, across the universe instanteously.
Or into the center of stars for disposal.


When you speak with another telepathically, you are communicating with the computer, and the content may or may not be passed on. Based on family history they instruct the computer to role play to accomplish strategic objectives, making people believe it is a friend, loved one or "god" asking them to do something wrong. This is their way of using temptation to hurt people in this day and age:::::evil made people disfavored initially and evil will keep people out of "heaven" ultimately. Too many people would do anything they thought pleased the gods and improve their chances to get in. Perhaps they are deceived by "made guys" who strategically ply evil for the throne. But nothing has changed from when we were children::if you want to go to heaven you have to be good.

Capitalizing on obedience, leading people deeper into evil by using deceit is one way to thin the ranks of the saved AND use the little people to prey on one another, dividing the community (migration to the suburbs, telepathic communication) in the Age of the Disfavored.
In each of their 20-30-year cycles during the 20th century they have ramped up claims sucessively to punish those foolish enough not to heed the warnings, justifying (frequently recurring tactic) limiting the time they receive if they do make it, utilizing a cycle of war and revelry:::
60s - Ironically, freeways aren't free
80s - Asked people to engage in evil in the course of their professional duties.
00s - Escallation of real estate. You and your parents are thrilled since your $200,000 house is now worth $1 million. Well, that $5,000,000 store is now worth $25,000,000 and that $50 bundle of goods now costs you $250. They just take the $200 out of you some other way.

There are many more examples throughout 20th century life of how they ramped up claims/instilled distractions into society so people wouldn't find their way and ascend, a way to justify excluding those whose family history of evil makes them undesirable:::radio, sports, movies, popular music, television, video games, the internet and MP3 (must pay for new format each time). They all suggest a very telling conclusion::this is Earth's end stage, and there are clues tectonic plate subduction would be the method of disposal:::Earth’s axis will shift breaking continental plates free and initiating mass subduction. Much as Italy's boot and the United States shaped like a workhorse are clues, so is the planet Uranus a clue, it's axis rotated on its side.
The Mayans were specific 2012 would be the end. How long after our emergency call in 2001 will the gods allow us???

They gods (Counsel/Management Team/ruling species) have deteriorated life on earth precipitously in the last 40 years, from abortion to pornography, widespread drug use and widespread casual sex. The earth's elders, hundreds and thousands of years old, are disgusted and have become indifferent.
The gods are paving the way for the Apocolypse.
Nothing has changed from decades ago, since when we were all children::If you want to go to heaven you have to be good. People were misled by the temptation of the gods, the Counsel/Management Team, who don't want them to go, and now are in trouble.

The Old Testiment is a tool they used to impart wisdom to the people (except people have no freewill). For example, they must be some hominid species because they claim they made our bodies in their image. Anyhow we defile or deform the body will hurt our chance of going.
They say circumcision costs people anywhere from 12%-15%, perhaps out of the parent's time as well.
Another way people foul the body today is with tattoes and piercing. I suspect both are about the same percentage as circumcision.
They suggest abortion is fatal. These women must beg the gods to forgive them for their evil.
There are female eqivilents to circumcision::::pierced ears, plastic surgury and since at least the 60s young women give their precious virginity away. In the Old World the young people were matched at age 14 because they were ready for marriage. They were matched by elders who knew personalities better than 20 or 30-year olds who in today's age end up in divorce court.
CASUAL SEX WILL CLAIM YOU OUT!!! It masculinizes women (as does hip hop), makes them cold and deadens them, and prevents them from achieving a depth of love necessary for many women to ascend.
Women have a special voice that speaks to them, a voice that illustrates a potential for love that makes them better, and enaging in casual sex will cause that voice to fade until she no longer speaks.
Also ever since the 50s they have celebrated the "bad boy", and women have sought out bad boys for sex, dirtying them up in the eyes of the elders and corrupting many men in the process, setting the men on the wrong path for life.


The United States of America is red white and blue, a theme and a clue:::.
The monarchical system of the Old World closley replicates the heirarchical system of the Cousel/Management Team/ruling species. The USA deceives peoeple into thinking they have control, and the perception of "freedom" misleads them at least into the wrong way of thinking.
The United States is a cancer, a dumping ground for the disfavored around the world and why the quality of life is so much lower::gun violence, widespead social ills, health care (medication poisons the body and ensures you don't go. You are sick because you have disfavor.). Over time its citizens interbreed ensuring a severed connection to the motherland.

If you ever have doubt I would refer you to the Old World way of life:::the elders used to sit and impart wisdom to the young. Now we watch DVDs and use the internet. People would be matched and married by age 14. They village would use a matchmaker or elders to pair young people. Now girls give their precious virginity away to some person in school and parents divorce while their children grow up without an important role model.


People must defy when asked to engage in evil. They will never get a easier clue suggesting the importance of defiance than the order not to pray.
Their precious babies are dependant on the parents and they need to defy when asked to betray their children:::
-DON'T get your sons circumcized
-DON'T have their children baptized in the Catholic Church or indoctrinated into Christianity.
-DON'T ignore their long hair or other behavioral disturbances.
-DO teach your children love, respect for others, humility and to honor the gods.

You need to pray, honor and respect them every day to improve your relationship with the gods. If they tell you not to it is a bad sign. it means they've made their decision, they don't want you to go and they don't want to be bothered.
This is the Age of the Disfavored and you need to pray::try to appease the gods by doing good deeds. If that doesn't work you must defy if you want to go.
When your peasant forefather was granted the rare opportunity to go before his royal family he went on his knees, bowing his head. You need to do this when you address the gods::bow down and submit to good. Never cast your eyes skyward. When you bow down you need to look within.
Lack of humility hurts people. Understand your insignificance and make sure it is reflected in the way you think when addressing the gods. Know your place and understand your inferiority.
They granted you life and they can take it just as easily.
Don't get frustrated or discouraged::these are techniques they will attempt to try to get you off the path. You all have much to be thankful for and you need to give thanks to the gods who granted you the good things in life. Your family may be grossly disfavored and progress may require patience. Make praying an intregal part of your life which you perform without fail, one that comes as naturally as eating or sleeping.
There are many interesting experiences up on the planetary systems, from Planet Miracle, where miracles happen every day, to other body experinces, such as experiencing life as the opposite sex (revolutionizes marriage counseling) or as an Olympic gold medal athelete.
Pray that you can differentiate between Artificial Intelligence creating problems by thinking through you and your own thoughts. If you bow down mentally and physically, know your place, your inferiority and allow your insignificance to be reflected in your prayer and in your life through humility they may allow progress and the dysfunctions they create with the computer will be lessened or removed.
Create a goal::to be a good child of the gods, pure of heart and mind, body and soul.


They have tried to sell people on all kinds of theories, from clones to wholesale population replacement with clones. This didin't happen and is not realistic.
I am afraid people are decieved into thinking they too are clones and cooperate and engage in evil. Clones are made, people are born. If you didn't experience the one week they suggest it takes to go from fertilized egg in the laboratory to full grown adult then you are not a clone. If you didin't experience the week of conditioning they give to (evil?) clones to ensure loyalty then you shoudln't comply with evil.
I believe people who go sometimes are replaced with clones. Clones who are replaced are simply new candidates who have a chance if they do the right thing. Don't expect you are a clone. They sent people warnings in the 20th century life would change, and they subsequenlty began to alter people's DNA, make them gargantuan, alter their appearance, do extreme behavioral issues, etc.
They get their friends out as soon as possible to protect them from the evil and subsequent high claim rates incurred by living life on earth, and in some cases replace them with clones, occassionally fake a death, real death with a clone instead, etc. It's the peasant whose brain is beemed out and put into a clone host, for they say those who do not go with the body given to them are on the clock.


Throughout history the ruling species bestowed favor upon people or cursed their bloodline into a pattern of disfavor for many generations to come. Now in the 21st century people must take it upon themselves to try to correct their family's problems, undoing centuries worth of abuse and neglect. The goal is to fix your problems and get out BEFORE you have children. This is why they have created so many distractions for young people:::sports, video games, popular music, the internet::to ensure that doesn't happen.
Do your research. Appeal to the royalty of your forefathers for help. They are all still alive, for royalty has great favor, and your appeals will be heard. Obtain a sufficient list for some may not want to assist you; perhaps some of your family's problems are internal.
Ask them for help, request guidance, for somewhere in your family history one of your forefathers created an offense that cast your family into this pattern of disfavor. I suspect they will offer you clues, and when you decipher these clues go to those whom consider you an enemy and beg for foregiveness:::Find a path to an empithetic ear among your enemies and try to make amends.
Again through discovery obtain a respectable list in case some among them refuse to help.
Don't forget to ask for forgiveness from the throne, the Counsel and the Management Team, for the source of all disfavor began with them:::they pushed (NO FREEWILL) or requested/complied (FREEWILL) your forefather into his offense and made his decendants evil. Perhaps they didn't like him or maybe your family was among those who had to pay for the entire village. We see this type of behavior today as they single out a family member to pay for the whole family and how they singled out Africa to pay for the human race.
Heal the disfavor with your enemies and with the Counsel/Management Team/ruling species, for the source of all disfavor began with them, the ability to forgive and respect in light of the disturbing truth revealed being the final test of the disfavored before they ascend.













In the 20th century they created an environment of preditor and victim, limiting how much time everybody gets, since the victim ultimately ends up despising the gods.



I wonder if their fear of my inarceration is borne from their refusal to address black disfavor on a macro level. The Counsel/Management Team/ruling species (the gods) abuse black people so hard, from the crack epiemic to gang membership, black-on-black violence and mass incarceration of their young. They refuse to address the issue of the prison industrial complex and its wholesale warehousing of young black men. Perhaps I can force them with my incarceration.

You are sick because you have disfavor. You need to imporove your relationship with the gods. Know your place, your inferiority and bow down mentally and physically.
Temptation takes many forms::: today the gods know how bad people want to please them, how bad they want to ascend and they will ask them to do evil things to tempt them, mislead them and cost them their chance.
Bow down and submit to good. Good woudl never ask you to circumcise your son or ignore behavioral disturbances.
You are the only one your children have and they are counting on you to do the right thing.
The gods will punish your evil by making you sick. Consider it a clue.



They stated sheep are foreign to earth, animals bestowed upon us for caretaking.
And they don’t appreciate them being consumed.
They state sheep are very intelligent animals who know what is ocurring at the slaughterhouse as they’re being led in.
There are many favored people who consume lamb, people who could do much better if they stopped eating these treasured animals so loved by so many among the ruling species.
There are clues::these jobs are very well paid, luring whites one would perceive as priveledged and hooking them once they incurr personal obligation. Only then do they find out the truth.