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IPSOS Captura has published its latest poll numbers last Monday. In them, it reports that Evo Morales leads the polls with 30.7 percent support and Jorge Quiroga closely follows with 28.7 percent. Businessman Samuel Doria Medina lags with 13.9 percent. These results show a seemingly neck-to-neck race between Evo Morales and Jorge Quiroga.
However, according to La Razon, the real winner is Jorge Quiroga. The IPSOS report shows that Quiroga has the lead in six of the nine deprtments, as follows: Quiroga leads in Beni with 37.5 percent vs. 9.4 percent for Morales; in Chuquisaca (Sucre) Quiroga scores 37.5 pecent, that would be 10.8 percentage points more than Morales; in Pando, Quiroga has 60.7 percent of the vote, while Morales has 13.4 percent; in Potosi, Quiroga again scores 36.3 percent, which represents 11.3 points more than Morales; in Santa Cruz, Quiroga has a lead where he has 33.8 percent, leading MAS with 20 percentage points and UN by 7.3; in Pando, Quiroga has a commanding lead of 51.6 percent, which represent 37.5 percentage points over Morales.
Morales, in turn, leads Quiroga in La Paz by 29.2 percentage points; in Cochabamba with 33 percent and Oruro with 36.5 percent.
All this means that Evo Morales has a lead in the national polls, but Jorge Quiroga has the real chances of becoming the next president of Bolivia. According to the La Razon article, Quiroga's leads in the particular departments will give him a majority in the upper chamber, the Senate. The Senate has 27 members, three per department. If Quiroga carries six of those, then he ends up with 18 Senators. That would represent a majority in the 27 member chamber. The calculations are not that easy in the lower chamber due to the proportional representation rules.
Sources: AP, La Razon, El Deber, Los Tiempos.
Addition1: See, this is what's good about the blogsphere. One can get a discussion going, even if it is not on the same place. Here is another perspective by boz on the polls released by IPSOS. It is a must read!
Addition2: Ciao! has thrown his insighful oppinion on the topic. Read it here.