November 22, 2005

Fresh Polls

MABB © ®
Here is a table, I hope you like. Fresh polls indicating a lead by Evo Morales, but being very closely followed by Jorge Quiroga. From this picture, one can see that Samuel is not that irrelevant. The table brakes the polls by department.

The source is the television network PAT and the company conducting the study is Grupos Mori. I found the data in the Bolivia.com site, but created the table myself.

In the blank-don't know-other column you can include the undecided and the supporters for other candidates, such as MNR's Michiaki Nagatani.

National Poll by Red PAT

National Results


Evo Morales

Jorge Quiroga

Samuel Doria

Blank-Don’t Know-Other


33%

27%

12%


Per Department

La Paz

51%

18%

9%


Oruro

40%

19%

8%

23%

Potosi

30%

28%

8%

16%

Cochabamba

40%

24%

7%

7%

Sucre

19%

34%

15%


Tarija

10%

52%

14%

9%

Santa Cruz

16%

33%

21%

12%

Beni

11%

36%

9%

27%

Pando

19%

45%

15%

10%

What is interesting to note when looking at Morales' numbers is that they decrease geographically from West to East. Strongholds are La Paz, Oruro, Potosi and Cochabamba, but still in the double digits in the rest of the departments. Quiroga's numbers reveal two weaknesess. First, Cochabamba, his hometown, shows pretty weak numbers for him compared to Morales' numbers. Second, I would have expected Quiroga to do better in Santa Cruz. I think, Doria is taking votes away from Quiroga. Strongest supports are Tarija and Pando. Doria hasn't been able to capture more votes. He's been polling in the same range consistently. His best numbers and stongholds are Santa Cruz, Sucre, Pando and Tarija.

One interesting feature from this table is that there seems to be a good chunk of votes up for grabs in Beni and Oruro. Not sure why. Anyone?

Also, according to the report, the way things are looking, Podemos is set to get 15 senators, MAS will get 9, UN will get 2 and MNR will get 1. Assuming Podemos, UN and MNR make up a government alliance, that would give 18 senators for the government and 9 for the opposition.

I'd like to see the reaction of MAS if the elections don't come out the way they think they will.

Update: I just wanted to place the same poll but from different medium (La Razon). We got the like thanks to Alvaro.

We can compare and perhaps see what difference does it make the medium of publication.



7 comments:

Alvaro Ruiz-Navajas said...

These numbers look very similar to those published today in La Razon. A big difference, though, is that in la Razon's numbers Tuto wins 6 of the 9 departments, not 5 like here.
Read it here

Daniel Duquenal said...

Beni? Is Beni that crucial compared to Oruro?

I think that it looks tough for Quiroga. Evo, even with all the help that my president and his tutor are sending him is probably not going to make it to 50%, probably not even in La Paz. But Quiroga needs a very strong second if he wants to justify a coalition. This situation reminds me the one when Allende came to power, with a paltry 33% but there was no strong second and the Christian Democrats of Tomic voted him in because, well, you know, Allende "won". With the results that we all know. Quiroga, in my view, needs to be no more than 4% behind Evo to be able to make a credible bid and stop Bolivia's road to perdition. Already a 5% gap is a psychological bareer hard to overcome as many who do not like Evo will say "but he won!" even if he does not reach the 40% at the end. Will Quiroga reach that goal?

Miguel (MABB) said...

Well, actually it's the same poll, just different companies making it public. That adds confidence in the results right? :-)

Any department contributing with seats will be important. I guess, if the race is close, Beni or for that matter Oruro might turn out to be the Ohios of Bolivia. Too bad we cannot paint the Bolivian map Yellow, red and blue, or can we?

You are right, Daniel, four percentage points can make a lot in the psyche of the voters.

Although, I am willing to bet that MAS supporters will not settle for nothing less than MAS in the government. If things go like this, there'll be trouble ahead anyway.

eduardo said...

Why does a MAS administration = a road to perdition? This is the same recycled rhetoric that is just repeated over and over. If they do come to power, then we should all work to make it work. If PODEMOS comes to power, then we should all work to make it work. I am afraid no matter who comes to power, the opposition will try their damndest to muck up everything.

Miguel said...

Well, one (among many) answer is that for people who think free market is the way to go the MAS program is a threat.

I also think that the same people equal Evo with Hugo and from our observations of what is going on in Venezuela, that is also a threat.

I think, it all comes from where does Evo want to take the country. And, if you take him at his word, then you would have to imagine a pretty grim future for free marketeers.

Taylor Kirk said...

What do you guys think about the recent comments Kirchner and Lula made about Morales? I don't know how well those guys are liked in Bolivia, or if their endorsement would matter. Anyone?

Miguel (MABB) said...

Well, in my opinion it is like this. There is good momentum gathering pace in Lat Am. This turn to the left by many governments is seen as a positive development in some circles, specially the worker's circles. The fact that Lula and Kirchner are a part of it (this momentum) just lends it more credibility.

Now, the left in Bolivia is keen in pointing out the support of these heavy weights. And, as for Morales, it serves him at least in two ways. One is that he is able to biuld good relations with Bolivia's neighbors. Two, is that it provides counter amunition for those who say Evo will isolate the country with his policies.

How relevant are these quasi-endorsements by Lula and Kirchner (let's remember that Lula has already said he backs no particular candidate and Kirchner was very indirect) to the voter?

My take is probably not very important. The way political thinking evolves in Bolivia is not entirely western. By that I mean, that people do not look at polls, nor foreign policy, nor think in terms of international variables to make their decisions. Or rather let me put it this way, there is not much experience with democracy and how to pick a candidate.

I think that people in Bolivia, the majority which are indigenous, pick their candidates on the bases of personality. They look for a father figure. Local issues dominate. Very often so local that two neighboring towns could have opposite views and thus very loud differences. I think most of the indigenous people in the Altiplano have the discrimination, second-class citizenship and alianation in mind.

Sure, they worry about infrastructure, who leads the polls, and Lula and Kirchner, but no so much as to make them decide. The most, I think, the endorsements would have just reinforced their belief in Evo. That's all.