November 22, 2005

Fresh Polls

MABB © ®
Here is a table, I hope you like. Fresh polls indicating a lead by Evo Morales, but being very closely followed by Jorge Quiroga. From this picture, one can see that Samuel is not that irrelevant. The table brakes the polls by department.

The source is the television network PAT and the company conducting the study is Grupos Mori. I found the data in the Bolivia.com site, but created the table myself.

In the blank-don't know-other column you can include the undecided and the supporters for other candidates, such as MNR's Michiaki Nagatani.

National Poll by Red PAT

National Results


Evo Morales

Jorge Quiroga

Samuel Doria

Blank-Don’t Know-Other


33%

27%

12%


Per Department

La Paz

51%

18%

9%


Oruro

40%

19%

8%

23%

Potosi

30%

28%

8%

16%

Cochabamba

40%

24%

7%

7%

Sucre

19%

34%

15%


Tarija

10%

52%

14%

9%

Santa Cruz

16%

33%

21%

12%

Beni

11%

36%

9%

27%

Pando

19%

45%

15%

10%

What is interesting to note when looking at Morales' numbers is that they decrease geographically from West to East. Strongholds are La Paz, Oruro, Potosi and Cochabamba, but still in the double digits in the rest of the departments. Quiroga's numbers reveal two weaknesess. First, Cochabamba, his hometown, shows pretty weak numbers for him compared to Morales' numbers. Second, I would have expected Quiroga to do better in Santa Cruz. I think, Doria is taking votes away from Quiroga. Strongest supports are Tarija and Pando. Doria hasn't been able to capture more votes. He's been polling in the same range consistently. His best numbers and stongholds are Santa Cruz, Sucre, Pando and Tarija.

One interesting feature from this table is that there seems to be a good chunk of votes up for grabs in Beni and Oruro. Not sure why. Anyone?

Also, according to the report, the way things are looking, Podemos is set to get 15 senators, MAS will get 9, UN will get 2 and MNR will get 1. Assuming Podemos, UN and MNR make up a government alliance, that would give 18 senators for the government and 9 for the opposition.

I'd like to see the reaction of MAS if the elections don't come out the way they think they will.

Update: I just wanted to place the same poll but from different medium (La Razon). We got the like thanks to Alvaro.

We can compare and perhaps see what difference does it make the medium of publication.