August 22, 2005

New Polls

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New polls came out in La Razon showing who is ahead in the Bolivian elections effort. In this graph left we can see a head to head run between Tuto Quiroga (ASXXI), 22% and Evo Morales (MAS), 21%. However, I'd like to call your attention to the last two numbers. The first of the two is the number of voters who will not be voting/will vote null or will vote blank (protest vote). This number is almost as much as the support for Tuto and equal to the number of support for Evo, 21%. The undecided are a mere 7%.

As my friend Miguel Centellas over in Ciao! has said in his post, one thing is clear, no one will get the 50 + 1 per cent of the vote needed in order to be elected president next December 4th. Therefore the decision will be made by the newly elected Congress. Once again concurring with Miguel Centellas at Ciao!, I think local candidates for deputies and senators will be crucial. It'll depend on how will power be divided in the new Congress.
This other graph on the right shows what is the standing of President Rodriguez's popularity. As the graph shows, it has gone up 8 points. What does that mean? I think now much, as approval ratings for Bolivian presidents tend to change from one day to the next.

That's just about it. I just wanted to share with you the poll numbers. Now back to work!


boz said...

As always, thanks, great updates. Have you seen any numbers for the Congressional election???

Fredrik Lindqvist said...

Great posting!
When is the deadline for registration for candidates to parliament and president?
Remember that the left-wing candidates Morales, Quispe and Costa Obregon got 29,7 % but that the left-wing parties got less % of seats. Will this be the same in this years election? Another intresting point is that parties such as MIR, MNR, NFR and ADN have a great local strenght, so even if their parties presidentila candidates fail to get a lot of votes, thet will likely get a couple of seats in the parliament.

Miguel A. Buitrago said...

I haven't seen numbers on Congressional candidates. I would assume they are hard to come by in Bolivia because they are kind of difficult to carry out. Also, some are selected from a list according to proportional representation. It would be interesting though, to see such a poll.

Yes, that is true. The traditional parties are bound to get seats in Congress. The problem would be if they get substantially less seats. Usually that means that a party is on its way out, into the land of irrelevance.

Seats in the Bolivian legislature are distributed according to a proportional representation formula. That means, parties have a list of candidates, which would get a seat according to a mathematical formula. Also, in addition to party lists, the system provides for directly elected (by simple majority) deputies in each district. All this is because the government wants to assure representation in Congress to all kinds of groups in society (ergo, the MIP has representation in Congress). So, parties which get enough votes to qualify them for the distribution of seats will get representation.

It will be interesting to see if ADN is able to keep its number of seats and if any new political organization gets some seats.