July 01, 2005

New Poll

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Interesting new poll by Apoyo published in La Razon. The most interesting part is to see if Carlos Mesa would run, he would get 25% of the vote. That is substantially more percentage points than the other three candidates. Also, without Mesa, there is a virtual tie between Quiroga, Doria Medina and Morales. Although, there is a down trend in the Morales' numbers.

There is one thing I ask myself. Why is it that Apoyo keeps polling only the major urban centers in the country. Don't they think that the rest of the country's oppinions are important. By polling major cities only, they present a somewhat distorted view. Granted that Bolivia is now a predominantly urban society, there is still an important part of the population who live in the rural areas. These people can also vote. I think this mistake ends up misrepresenting parties like MAS. Clearly MAS has substantial support in the rural areas. We don't know how much, because pollsters keep ignoring them.

It is also sad to see so high disapproval numbers for Congress. 71% is a very high number. I am also willing to bet that number will get even higher, the was things are going now. Congress is deeply divided and cannot really arrive to decisions. At this point I am starting to think that it is a good idea to renew the whole government, legislative and executive branches.

There is one more thing I am puzzled about. The disapproval rate for Evo Morales is currently 67%, down from 72% in May. These are huge numbers. Why is it then that Morales can have such an impact on Bolivian politics?


boz said...

Polling outside of the major cities in Bolivia is expensive and difficult to do accurately. To be perfectly honest, when I've seen nationwide polls, it does not change the numbers all that much. It probably adds 3-6 points to Morales' score (which is not much at all) and everyone else stays about the same.

Miguel said...

Well Apoyo has the money to do it. It would just be more complete.

Can you tell me where you have seen national polls? I have been looking for them and can't seem to find them. I would appreciate it.

By the way, thanks for the link to MABB. I will add you to my blogroll too.